The Best Supporting Actress Race for the 2026 Oscars
Last year, Zoe Saldaña dominated the award season before winning Best Supporting Actress, but the 2026 Oscars could be a very different year for the category. There are already some wonderful performances challenging to win at the 98th Academy Awards, and it’s exciting to chronicle the race once more.
Historically, this category almost always goes to someone without an Oscar trophy. Only five Best Supporting Actress Oscar winners in history were already Academy Award winners: Shelley Winters in 1965 (won in 1959), Helen Hayes in 1970 (won Best Actress in 1931/1932), Ingrid Bergman in 1974 (won Best Actress in 1944 and 1956), Maggie Smith in 1978 (won Best Actress in 1969), and Diane Wiest in 1994 (won in 1986). This trend appears likely to continue in 2026, as most of the contenders for Best Supporting Actress have never won an Oscar before, despite being in this industry for years, if not decades. A few are even previous nominees who missed out on a chance to win.
There’s also a good mixture of “new names” for the Academy voters to consider, and several strong narratives and campaigns that could shift the standings. Here’s the current landscape of Best Supporting Actress, but keep checking back, as I will be updating this as the Oscars season continues to unfold.
Commentary and Predictions Updated on November 28
The Best Supporting Actress Nomination Frontrunners
The Best Supporting Actress race continues to evolve, and the release of Wicked: For Good means everyone has finally been able to see presumed contender Ariana Grande’s return as Glinda. And while the movie may not be as beloved as the first, Grande’s performance is arguably even better, with the story allowing her to go to greater depths as an actress.
It is no surprise that Wicked: For Good‘s release has cemented Grande’s place as a legit Oscar contender once again. She’s certainly going to get a nomination. After being the presumed runner-up to Zoe Saldaña last year, it will come down to whether the weaker response to Wicked sequel means she can get over the hump and win it all now.
The biggest competition for Grande is undoubtedly Teyana Taylor. Her big, powerful, and memorable turn as Perfidia continues to resonate with people, and she’s not been forgotten, picking up Gotham Awards and Astra Film Awards nominations. With One Battle After Another remaining alive in most Oscar categories, Taylor stands to benefit further.
Elle Fanning remains at three in this update. Now that the movie is out in theaters, there’s more echoing of what https://orijawa.xyz‘s Graeme Guttmann said in his 10/10 Sentimental Value review, stating the actress gets a few “showcase moments” as aspiring star Rachel Kemp.
While I previously questioned if Fanning would stay in or lose ground to her lesser-known Norwegian co-star, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, I’m now of the belief that they’ll both get in. Lilleaas slots in at number five after picking up Gotham and Astra nominations. So rather than One Battle After Another snagging two spots in Best Supporting Actress, it may be Sentimental Value.
Gwyneth Paltrow keeps her spot in my predicted top five thanks to the strength of Marty Supreme‘s presence in awards season so far. She’ll have to overcome the aforementioned poor history of Academy Award winners finding success in this category to get her second Oscar over two decades after winning for Shakespeare in Love.
Actresses Still In The Mix
By adding both Sentimental Value actresses to the predicted nominee group, Regina Hall slides down to this section. She did snag an Astra nomination to aid her campaign, but it does feel more likely than ever that she could miss out on an Oscar nomination. It’s unlikely all six of One Battle After Another‘s performers are recognized, and she could be one of the ones to be snubbed.
Luckily for her, she’s at least still in the mix. Jennifer Lopez (Kiss of a Spider Woman), Kirsten Dunst (Roofman), Rebecca Ferguson (A House of Dynamite), Thomasin McKenzie (The Testament of Ann Lee), and Zoey Deutch (Nouvelle Vague) haven’t secured any notable precursor nominations, while the Train Dreams duo of former Oscar nominees Felicity Jones and Kerry Condon also lack support. That leaves us with 11 other performers.
Emily Blunt’s campaign is on life support after missing out at Gotham and Astra, while Laura Dern, Jamie Lee Curtis, and Emily Watson are still hoping their film’s wide releases elevate their standings. The odds of that happening feel low considering how well-positioned many other performances are.
Sinners’ female stars Hailee Steinfeld and Wunmi Mosaku could benefit from the film’s overall Oscars pedigree. Steinfeld is the former Oscar nominee thanks to True Grit, but Mosaku picked up the Gotham nomination; they both were nominated at Astra.
Odessa A’zio also should not be overlooked, as she did get an Astra nomination, despite Marty Supreme still being a month away from hitting theaters. While Paltrow is the one in the predicted nominee group, there is a world where favor shifts toward A’zio.
Nina Hoss and Glenn Close have also kept some momentum on their side with recognition at Astra. Should Prime Video and Netflix keep pushing Hedda and Wake Up Dead Man hard, either will have a chance of breaking into the Oscars race to try and pull off a surprise win.
The support for Amy Madigan’s Weapons performance is still going strong, too. She finally got a notable nomination with Astra, proving that Warner Bros.’s campaign is working. With Madigan also a former nominee for 1985’s Twice in a Lifetime, it’d be quite the comeback story if she secures another nomination 40 years later.
Predicted Best Supporting Actress Winner
Ariana Grande remains my pick to win Best Supporting Actress at the 2026 Oscars, but my confidence is a bit shaken, admittedly. Wicked: For Good‘s reception has brought the film’s entire Oscar chances into question. And while I have no doubt Grande will secure a nomination, the more tepid response holds her back from being the choice.
The reason I’ve kept her as the winner comes down to the cumulative work between the two Wicked movies. Rather than this next nomination being a place to only recognize her work in Wicked: For Good, her campaign should embrace how it works in conjunction with the first film. The range she shows throughout both is amazing, heartbreaking, and funny.
She’s also secured an Astra nomination, putting her on the board this awards season. Voters will not forget about her Glinda, and with so many months still to come before a winner is crowned, there’s a lot of time for Grande to solidify her spot at the top of this category.
This will be a close race to watch as the season develops, though, as who wins between Grande and Taylor at different awards shows could really determine who wins the category at the 2026 Oscars.
