The Best Supporting Actor Race at the 98th Academy Awards
The Oscars 2026 race for Best Supporting Actor is shaping up to be one of the most competitive categories at the 98th Academy Awards. With Kieran Culkin’s win for A Real Pain last year, the spotlight is now on who will follow in his footsteps. As the award season progresses, this category continues to evolve with new contenders and shifting dynamics.
One notable trend in recent years has been the dominance of first-time winners in the Best Supporting Actor category. Over the past six years, every winner has been a first-time Oscar recipient. The only exception was Mahershala Ali, who won for Green Book. This pattern raises interesting questions about whether voters are more inclined to honor new talent or recognize established performers.
There are several actors vying for recognition in this category, including both veterans and newcomers. Hollywood stalwarts like Adam Sandler, Delroy Lindo, Stellan Skarsgård, and William H. Macy are all hoping for their breakthrough Oscar moment. Meanwhile, some actors with prior Academy Award experience are also in contention, creating a dynamic field where voters must decide between rewarding past achievements or recognizing overdue talent.
Frontrunners for the Nomination
As the season unfolds, a few names have emerged as strong contenders for the Best Supporting Actor nomination. Stellan Skarsgård and Sean Penn currently lead the pack. Skarsgård’s performance in Sentimental Value has drawn attention, particularly after receiving nominations at the Gotham Awards and Astra Film Awards. His role as an estranged father struggling with personal loss and professional decline could be the film’s strongest Oscar asset.
Penn, on the other hand, is seeking his sixth nomination for his role in One Battle After Another. Although he missed out on a Gotham Award nod, his co-star Benicio del Toro received recognition instead. However, Penn’s powerful performance as a villain is unlikely to go unnoticed by Academy voters.
Paul Mescal remains a strong candidate for Hamnet, despite not having won an Oscar yet. His previous nomination for Aftersun has kept him in the conversation, and if Chloé Zhao’s film resonates with voters, he could pull off an upset win.
Jacob Elordi has moved up in the rankings due to the success of Frankenstein. The film has gained momentum, and if it continues to impress audiences, Elordi could secure his first Oscar nomination. This rise has pushed Adam Sandler down a spot, though he still holds a strong position with Gotham and Astra nods. However, his chances may improve once Jay Kelly is released on Netflix.
Actors Still in the Mix
While some actors have fallen out of the race, others remain hopeful. Andrew Garfield, Diego Luna, Idris Elba, and James Belushi are considered longshots at this point. Similarly, Jonathan Bailey and Ethan Slater’s chances have diminished following the release of Wicked: For Good, although Bailey still has a slight edge.
Keanu Reeves and David Jonsson, despite Astra nominations, do not yet feel like serious contenders. This leaves 14 names in the running, with Benicio del Toro standing out as a potential dark horse. He is seeking his third nomination for One Battle After Another and appears in many prediction lists, though I remain cautious about his chances given the competition.
Other films like Sinners offer multiple possibilities, with Delroy Lindo, Miles Caton, and Jack O’Connell as potential nominees. Lindo, a veteran actor, is especially intriguing, while Caton, a breakout performer, is tied to the film’s Best Original Song hopes.
Bradley Cooper, Billy Crudup, William H. Macy, Jacobi Jupe, Jeremy Strong, and Mark Hamill have seen their prospects diminish after missing out on Gotham and Astra awards. Meanwhile, Andrew Scott and Alexander Skarsgård faced setbacks from Astra misses, but Josh O’Connor gained momentum with his Astrid nomination.
Predicted Winner
At this stage, Stellan Skarsgård appears to be the frontrunner for the Best Supporting Actor win. His role in Sentimental Value offers a compelling narrative, portraying a man grappling with personal and professional losses. His decades of experience in major franchises like the MCU, Dune, and Star Wars: Andor have made him a respected figure in Hollywood, yet he has not received the same level of recognition as many of his peers.
Sentimental Value itself is expected to be a strong contender across multiple categories, which could further elevate Skarsgård’s chances. While the film’s overall path to victory remains uncertain, its impact on voters could make Skarsgård the standout performer.
If the Academy chooses to honor a reliable and talented actor like Skarsgård, it could solidify his place in Oscar history. For now, it seems likely that he will take home the award at the Oscars 2026.
Additional Predictions
For those interested in following the broader Oscar race, there are additional predictions covering all 24 categories, including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, and Best Supporting Actress. These insights provide a comprehensive look at what to expect in the coming months as the 2026 Academy Awards approach.
