The Best Actor Nomination Frontrunners
With only five male performances eligible to be nominated by the Academy for Best Actor, the highly competitive field will include several strong contenders who miss the cut. The response to these performances, the awards they’ve received, and Oscar history help act as a guide. Here is my current Oscars 2026 Best Actor nominations prediction:
Since my last update, not much has changed when it comes to Best Actor. Train Dreams and Rental Family have premiered with the hope of pushing Joel Edgerton and Brendan Fraser into this current tier, but neither has done enough to break into this segment just yet. The only movement on the ranking is Michael B. Jordan and Ethan Hawke swapping spots.
When I last shook up the predictions to include him, he was seen as a rising contender on the back of his Gotham Awards nomination for Outstanding Lead Performance. The narrative around one of Hollywood’s best talents still not being an Academy Award winner was growing, suggesting that he could keep picking up momentum and come out of this race on top. Now, I’m not so sure if that’s all that likely.
Blue Moon isn’t likely to be an Oscar contender beyond Hawke’s performance, which doesn’t help his cause. Furthermore, he was surprisingly not nominated by the Astra Film Awards, even though he easily could have occupied one of the 12 slots in the Drama and Musical/Comedy categories. A miss there could prove to be significant.
Excluding Hawke, the other four all took a step towards an Oscar nomination with their Astra nominations. Interestingly, Moura is the only one who was recognized there and at the Gothams, which, when also considering he won Best Actor at Cannes for The Secret Agent, gives him a very strong resume with two months to go. That said, The Secret Agent‘s buzz overall has cooled, making Moura more vulnerable than before. He’s still firmly in the mix in my mind, but there is a chance that he slides further if any other performances manage to gain traction.
Meanwhile, nothing has happened to make Chalamet or DiCaprio at risk of missing out on a nomination. The continued love for Sinners has also kept Jordan very much in contention. The first two are sure to be among the Best Actor nominees, and it would be quite surprising at this point if the latter was snubbed.
Actors Still In The Mix
Those five performances are far from locks to get Best Actor nominations. Many other actors have the time and opportunity to enhance their position, which would inevitably push others down here. The group of actors who are still very much alive in this race includes a great range of familiar faces. That said, some big names have not managed to generate the necessary buzz to really be in consideration anymore.
I’ve removed Cillian Murphy (Steve), Colin Farrell (Ballad of a Small Player), Daniel Day-Lewis (Anemone), Denzel Washington (Highest 2 Lowest), and Russell Crowe (Nuremberg) from this section. It would take a big reversal of their standings in the race to give them realistic chances of getting nominations, unless Academy voters just decide to give former winners like Day-Lewis and Washington the edge based on the totality of their careers. With them out of the mix, that leaves 11 other names to consider.
The majority of this group are looking for their first Oscar nominations, with Fraser and Clooney being former winners, and Jackman and Plemons being the only former nominees. Isaac, Clooney, and Edgerton are all hoping their Netflix films’ status as Best Picture contenders gives them a necessary boost, but it’s unclear which has the strongest case. All three got Astra nominations and missed at the Gothams.
In fact, all these actors, except for Tatum, Jackman, and Arnett, were nominated by Astra. Byung-hun was the only one to be recognized with the Gotham nominations. Tatum got the Tribute Performer Award at TIFF. With so much shifting among who is recognized and where, none of these names have managed to fully take advantage of awards season momentum.
Which, if any, of these names can move up to secure a nomination could come down to how well they play the awards season game: attending screenings and other events, doing Q&As, etc. If that determines things, the charisma and stardom of Johnson or Jackman could make a difference.
Predicted Best Actor Winner
Best Actor could really go in several directions by the time the 98th Academy Awards happen on March 15, 2026. But, my opinion on the race has continued to solidify and give the soon-to-be 30-year-old star the edge. Chalamet is well-positioned to win the Best Actor Oscar this year. He ran a great campaign after his nomination for A Complete Unknown, so much so that his SAG win left me convinced he was going to deliver a surprise upset at the 2025 Oscars and become the youngest Best Actor winner ever.
That didn’t happen, but Marty Supreme is his chance to finally get that recognition. The sports drama looks absolutely thrilling based on the trailer, and Chalamet’s performance will be a big reason why the movie works. A24 clearly has a lot of faith in it with the late December release, which could allow his performance to breathe new life into the race at the right time.
He’s already stolen attention away from other competitors and is viewed by many in the industry as a bright, young star who is making great career choices. It’d make sense for this to be the moment Hollywood crowns him as the next face of the industry, putting him on his path to be one of the greats, as he wants to be. It also helps that A24 has delivered Best Actor wins in two of the last three years. Chalamet gives them a good chance to go three for four after the Oscars 2026. There’s still so much of this season still to come, though, so whether he’ll still be in this position in a few weeks or months remains to be seen.
