The Best Actress Race for the 2026 Oscars
As the awards season continues to build momentum, the Best Actress category for the 2026 Oscars is shaping up to be one of the most competitive and unpredictable in recent years. With a wide array of outstanding performances from both seasoned veterans and rising stars, it’s clear that the Academy will have a tough time choosing just five nominees, let alone a winner.
This year’s race has been influenced by a number of factors, including strong festival buzz, early award season recognition, and the overall potential of each film to resonate with voters. While the field is still evolving, certain names are beginning to emerge as frontrunners based on critical acclaim, industry support, and historical precedent.
Current Frontrunners in the Best Actress Race
At the top of the list, Jessie Buckley remains a dominant force in the race. Her performance in Hamnet has garnered widespread praise and has already earned her recognition from the Gotham Awards and Astra Film Awards. Buckley’s emotional depth and nuanced portrayal of Agnes Shakespeare have made her a strong contender, and many believe she is the favorite to take home the Oscar this year.
Renate Reinsve also continues to be a major player, especially after earning an Astra nomination. Although she didn’t receive Oscar consideration for The Worst Person in the World, her performance in Sentimental Value has generated significant buzz, making her a serious threat to Buckley.
Amanda Seyfried has made a notable rise in the race. Having previously been nominated for Best Supporting Actress for Mank, her recent Gotham and Astra nominations signal growing support for her lead role. If Hamnet and Sentimental Value continue to gain traction, Seyfried could be in line for a well-deserved nomination.
Emma Stone, despite her strong performance in Bugonia, has seen a slight drop in the rankings. While she did earn an Astra nomination, her absence from the Gotham Awards has raised some concerns about the film’s Oscar prospects. However, her two previous wins make her a formidable presence in the race.
Cynthia Erivo, while still expected to be nominated, has seen her position shift slightly due to mixed reactions to Wicked: For Good. Whether she secures another nomination will depend heavily on how the sequel performs overall.
Actresses Still in the Mix
With less than two months until the Oscar nominations are announced, the race is starting to narrow. Several actresses who were once considered strong contenders have now fallen out of the conversation, including Cate Blanchett, Jodie Foster, and June Squibb. Julia Garner and Eve Victor, despite their Astra nominations, are also not currently in the top five.
Mackey, Roberts, Hudson, and Liu remain unmentioned in the Astra nominations, which raises questions about their chances. Hudson’s lack of recognition is particularly surprising, given the existence of a Comedy or Musical category.
Chase Infiniti is one of the few performers who appears to be on the cusp of breaking into the top five. Her breakout role in Once Battle After Another has drawn attention, but it remains to be seen whether voters will recognize her performance this year or wait for another opportunity.
Jennifer Lawrence and Sydney Sweeney are still fighting to overcome negative box office news associated with their films. However, Lawrence’s Gotham and Astra nominations suggest her chances remain strong, while Sweeney’s first precursor nomination keeps her in the mix.
Rose Byrne and Tessa Thompson are also in contention for their first Oscar nods. Both have received recognition at the Gotham and Astra Awards, with Byrne having been part of the race for nearly a year following the Sundance premiere of If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You.
Laura Dern also deserves mention. Her performance in Is This Thing On? has been praised, and with a strong supporting role in Jay Kelly, she could see increased support as the season progresses.
Predicted Best Actress Winner
While it’s still early, there is a growing consensus that Jessie Buckley is the frontrunner for the Best Actress Oscar. Her performance in Hamnet has left a lasting impression on critics and audiences alike, with many describing it as emotionally powerful and unforgettable.
Buckley has steadily built her career since her breakthrough in Wild Rose and has delivered standout performances in films like The Lost Daughter and Women Talking. As she prepares to take on a new challenge with The Bride!, winning an Oscar for Hamnet could mark a defining moment in her career.
While other nominees could still overtake her, there has been no significant pushback against her performance. The fact that Hamnet has maintained its momentum throughout the season suggests that Buckley is in a strong position to win.
Final Thoughts
As the 2026 Oscars approach, the Best Actress race will likely continue to evolve. New films, award season momentum, and shifting public sentiment could all play a role in determining the final five nominees and the eventual winner. For now, Jessie Buckley appears to be the favorite, but the race is far from over.
For more predictions and insights into the 2026 Oscars, keep checking back as the season unfolds. Additional coverage includes:
- Oscars 2026 Predictions in All 24 Categories: Nominees & Winners
- Oscars 2026 Best Picture Predictions: Nominees & Winner
- Oscars 2026 Best Director Predictions: Nominees & Winner
- Oscars 2026 Best Actor Predictions: Nominees & Winner
- Oscars 2026 Best Supporting Actor Predictions: Nominees & Winner
- Oscars 2026 Best Supporting Actress Predictions: Nominees & Winner
